Australia's Migration Outlook: What to Expect in 2025-2026
As the 2025-2026 program year approaches, the Australian migration landscape is shifting. Here is what applicants, employers, and advisers should expect from the coming year.
The Migration Program in Context
Each July, the Australian Government sets the planning levels for its permanent migration program. This number, often referred to as the migration cap, determines how many permanent visas will be granted in the coming financial year. For the 2024-2025 program year, the planning level was set at 185,000 places, a reduction from the post-pandemic highs.
The 2025-2026 program year is expected to continue this trend of moderation. The government has signalled that it intends to bring net overseas migration back to pre-pandemic levels of around 235,000 per year, down from the record 548,000 recorded in 2022-2023. Permanent migration planning levels are likely to remain in the 170,000 to 185,000 range.
Expected Quota Changes
Within the overall planning level, the allocation between visa categories matters enormously. The program is broadly divided into three streams: Skill, Family, and Special Eligibility.
Skilled Migration
The skilled stream has consistently received the largest share of the program, and this is unlikely to change. Expect approximately 132,000 to 137,000 places to be allocated to skilled visas, including employer sponsored, points-tested, and state/territory nominated pathways.
Within the skilled stream, employer sponsored visas are expected to receive an increased share as the government prioritises demand-driven migration over supply-driven models. The new Skills in Demand visa will be the primary vehicle for this shift.
Family Migration
The family stream is expected to receive approximately 50,000 to 53,000 places. The government has made commitments to reduce the partner visa processing backlog, which had blown out to over 100,000 applications in recent years. Faster processing is likely, though the number of places may not increase significantly.
Special Eligibility
This small category covers specific visa types such as the Distinguished Talent visa and usually receives fewer than 1,000 places.
Policy Direction
Several policy themes are shaping the 2025-2026 migration landscape.
From Temporary to Permanent
The government has articulated a clear preference for pathways that lead to permanent residency rather than indefinite stays on temporary visas. This is reflected in the design of the Skills in Demand visa (which includes a permanent residency pathway for Core Skills holders), the tightening of the 485 graduate visa, and the emphasis on the 491-to-191 regional pathway.
Quality Over Quantity
Processing times for many visa subclasses have improved significantly, partly because the government invested in additional processing capacity and partly because stricter eligibility requirements have reduced application volumes. The Genuine Student requirement, higher English thresholds, and tighter age limits have all contributed to a smaller but higher-quality applicant pool.
Regional Focus
The push toward regional migration continues to strengthen. The government sees regional areas as key to managing population growth while addressing acute labour shortages in healthcare, agriculture, construction, and education. The 491 visa, regional employer sponsored pathways, and dedicated state nomination programs for regional areas all reflect this priority.
Compliance and Integrity
Expect continued investment in compliance and enforcement. The government has increased penalties for employers who exploit sponsored workers, introduced a new framework for monitoring sponsored worker conditions, and strengthened the powers of the Australian Border Force and Fair Work Ombudsman. For applicants, this means that genuine applications will be processed faster, but fraudulent or non-compliant applications will face harsher consequences.
Sector Demands
Labour market data from Jobs and Skills Australia indicates that several sectors will continue to experience significant skills shortages in 2025-2026.
Healthcare
Nurses, aged care workers, doctors (particularly GPs and specialists in rural areas), and allied health professionals remain in acute shortage. Healthcare occupations are expected to feature prominently on all skilled occupation lists and receive priority processing.
Technology
Software engineers, cybersecurity specialists, data analysts, and cloud computing professionals continue to be in demand. The tech sector benefits from the Specialist Skills pathway of the Skills in Demand visa, as many tech salaries exceed the $135,000 threshold.
Construction and Trades
Australia's infrastructure pipeline and housing targets require a significantly larger construction workforce. Electricians, plumbers, carpenters, civil engineers, and project managers are all in high demand. Trade occupations are well-represented on state nomination lists, particularly in South Australia and Western Australia.
Education
Teachers, particularly in secondary education (mathematics, science, and special needs), are in shortage across most states. Teaching is a strong occupation for state nomination, and several states offer dedicated pathways for qualified teachers.
Housing and Population
The relationship between migration and housing has become a prominent public policy issue. Record population growth driven by high net overseas migration has contributed to pressure on housing markets, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
The government's response has been twofold: moderate the pace of migration (hence the reduced planning levels) and increase housing supply (through the National Housing Accord and related programs). For migration applicants, this means that the overall number of visas available may be constrained, but pathways for genuinely skilled workers remain strong.
Applicants willing to settle in regional areas or in cities with less housing pressure (such as Adelaide, Hobart, and Darwin) may find faster processing and more nomination opportunities than those targeting Sydney and Melbourne.
Advice for Applicants
Prepare Now
If you are planning to apply for an Australian visa in the 2025-2026 program year, start preparing immediately. Get your skills assessment underway, book your English test, and gather your supporting documents. Processing times for skills assessments and English tests can be months, and you do not want to miss an invitation because your documents were not ready.
Maximise Your Points
For points-tested visas (189, 190, 491), every point counts. Focus on the factors you can control: English score (up to 20 points), professional year (5 points), NAATI credentialled community language (5 points), and partner skills (up to 10 points). Even five additional points can move you from a waiting list to an invitation.
Consider Multiple Pathways
Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Submit EOIs for the 189, 190, and 491 simultaneously if you are eligible. Apply for state nomination in more than one jurisdiction. Consider employer sponsorship in parallel with points-tested applications. The fastest pathway to an outcome is often the one you did not expect.
Stay Informed
Migration policy changes frequently, and a rule that applies today may not apply next month. Monitor the Department of Home Affairs website, subscribe to updates from Jobs and Skills Australia, and follow reputable migration news sources. If you are working with a migration agent, ensure they are providing regular updates on changes that affect your case.
Seek Professional Advice
The Australian migration system is complex and the stakes are high. A registered migration agent can help you navigate the options, avoid costly mistakes, and develop a strategy that maximises your chances of success. This is particularly important during periods of policy change, when transitional rules and overlapping pathways can create confusion.
Looking Ahead
The 2025-2026 program year represents a consolidation of the reforms that have been rolling out since the Migration Strategy was released in late 2023. The system is becoming more targeted, more responsive to labour market data, and more focused on permanent outcomes. For applicants with genuine skills in areas of demand, this is broadly positive. The window for applicants without clear skills or whose occupations are not in shortage is narrowing. Preparation, flexibility, and informed decision-making will be the keys to success in the year ahead.
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